By Dr. Brian Tam, Science & Policy Exchange, 2025

Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 is a goal Canada shares with the international community under the 2015 Paris Agreement [1] to keep average global warming “well below 2°C” compared to pre-industrial levels and mitigate the worst effects of a warming climate. A business as usual approach will not enable Canada to reach this goal. Neither innovations in science nor policy alone can achieve net-zero emissions.

Scientific and public knowledge, policy, and public engagement and participation coexist in a complex network. [2] New public policies may encourage net-zero emissions through changing attitudes and behaviour and improved climate change response. Public policies also may accelerate the development of emerging science and technologies that more quickly enable net-zero emissions.

A framework of the stages of the climate policy cycle [2]

“Science for Policy” and “Policy for Science”

Creating robust evidence-based policy is only possible when policymakers have access to and understand the scientific evidence related to achieving net-zero emissions. Scientists can encourage their work to be considered by policymakers by actively seeking to provide evidence during public consultations [3] by committees of lawmakers. Scientists can also engage with public and research society outreach.

Pro-science policies are often needed to fund the initial stages of “blue sky research” — basic research funded with a desire for scientific understanding [4] that may not directly create short-term financial returns. Research and development in the private sector may also spur innovations, but only those that are profitable.

The role of science in reaching net-zero emissions

Scientists monitor and record emissions at stations around the world, providing the data that informs society of the state of the Earth’s systems. [5] Tools such as Life Cycle Analysis provide the methodology for quantifying the environmental impacts of goods and processes across industries. [6] Altogether, concepts such as the Global Carbon Budget [7], the embodied carbon for goods and activities, and carbon accounting of offsets and negative emissions can be used to quantify any individual or larger entity’s carbon emissions.

Scientists also develop new technologies, such as renewable energy and negative-emission sinks, that could promote a net-zero emissions society. This work, however, may not directly generate financial revenues and so require public subsidies to be initially viable.

The C3S Climate Data Store of the European Union’s Copernicus programme indicates that 30-year warming trends are accelerating, with the Earth surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2029. [5]

The role of policy in reaching net-zero emissions

The existence of the net-zero emissions by 2050 goal is the result of Canadian policy makers responding to ongoing public and scientific pressures. They ultimately balance this goal with their wider mandate of improving the lives of Canadians. Specific actions that policymakers take include regulating commercial and public sector operations to encourage meeting net-zero emissions targets.

Highlighted policies supporting the net-zero emissions goal:

• Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations were finalised in December 2024. The regulations set limits from 2035 on carbon dioxide emissions from all larger electricity generation. [8]
• In 2019, nationwide pollution pricing per tonne of emissions was introduced with revenues returned disproportionally to low and middle-income households. [9]

Publicly available models of future policy scenarios already exist to simulate the impact of combinations of dozens of policy changes over time.

Carbon emissions per year under a business as usual model (black) and net-zero by 2050 model (blue), simulated by the Canada Energy Policy Simulator [10] Users may customize the settings of dozens of policies to examine myriad scenarios.

Canada’s progress towards net-zero carbon emissions

In 2023, the Canadian Climate Institute projected [11] that legislated, developing, and announced policies reducing emissions are progressing towards, but not quite expected to meet the interim goal of 440 megatonnes of emissions by 2030.

The combination of legislated, developing and announced policies decreases emissions but are not quite projected to meet the 2050 pathway to net-zero emissions [11]

Challenges to the adoption of renewable energy in Canada

Public urgency around preventing and mitigating climate change by reducing emissions is needed for maintaining and encouraging progressive policy changes. The cost competitiveness of renewable energy is an initial requirement for the transition away from carbon-emitting fuels. Reliability and security of energy supply are also logistical challenges for electricity system operators to overcome.

Specific actions for the public and policymakers:

• Improve public trust in institutions to combat climate defeatism and denialism.
• Enhance policy cooperation (such as grid interconnectors between provinces).
• Reduce wealth inequality so that the public have the agency and resources to change attitudes and behaviours that reduce carbon emissions.
• Ease the emissions target by encouraging efficiency & demand reduction.

Ultimately …

Reaching net-zero emissions in Canada is a long-term process requiring the development of scientific and public knowledge, public engagement and participation, policy and societal outcomes. Every effort in advancing scientific technology and alignments in public support will incrementally support the attainment of this goal.

Science & Policy Exchange’s recent public forum Canada’s Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 hosted a panel of experts addressing these topics. Early career researchers and science policy aspirants can play a role in developing new technologies and policies that support the achievement of Canada’s emission targets.

[1] Canada’s Nationally Determined Contribution (2021): 40–45% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

[2] Can public awareness, knowledge and engagement improve climate change adaptation policies? Discov Sustain 2, 18 (2021).

[3] Current consultations, House of Commons, Canada

[4] The Millennium Technology Prize (2022)

[5] Global Temperature Trend Monitor, The Copernicus Climate Change Service

[6] Ecoinvent database of life cycle inventory data used in Life Cycle Assessment

[7] Our World in Data analysis of the global carbon budget (2023)

[8] Canada’s finalized Clean Electricity Regulations (2024)

[9] Pollution pricing in Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada (2023)

[10] Canada Energy Policy Simulator, Energy Innovation

[11] The Canadian Climate Institute 440 MT Pathways Tracker (2023)